Trump’s Thanksgiving Lie? Is the 25% ‘Savings’ Built on Smoke and Mirrors?

Three days after the original claim—and just in time for holiday prep—here’s what’s really on the menu.

On November 7 and 8, 2025, Donald Trump repeated a rosy economic promise to voters: “Thanksgiving this year will cost 25% less than last year,” he declared, pointing to Walmart’s promotional meal basket as proof.

It sounds like good news. But it’s not true—not in any meaningful way.

Yes, Walmart’s 2025 basket is priced about 25% lower than its 2024 version. But that’s only because the 2025 basket contains fewer items, smaller portions, and cheaper substitutes. In short: it’s not the same meal. It’s a bait-and-switch dressed up as generosity—as the Associated Press fact check confirms.

The Walmart Supercenter on Richmond Avenue in Staunton, Virginia. Photo by Ben Schumin. Used under CC BY-SA 2.0.

The Basket Bait-and-Switch

Last year, Walmart’s Thanksgiving basket included 11 items: a whole turkey, Green Giant stuffing, Ocean Spray cranberry sauce, Libby’s pumpkin pie filling, Pillsbury rolls, and more—for about $54.

This year? Eight items: a smaller, generic-brand turkey, no dinner rolls, no pie filling, and Great Value substitutes throughout. Total price: ~$41.

That’s a 24–25% drop in cost—but a 27% drop in content. Walmart never pretended otherwise. But Trump did.

What the Data Actually Says

According to the American Farm Bureau Federation’s annual Thanksgiving Cost Survey—the gold standard for holiday price tracking—the average cost of a classic Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people rose to $65.87 in 2025, up from $64.05 in 2024.

Meanwhile, a Wells Fargo analysis confirms many grocery staples remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic norms. And while some retailers locked in turkey prices early, that’s a function of corporate strategy—not presidential policy.

“It’s not apples to apples,” said David Anderson, livestock economist at Texas A&M University. “What this highlights is individual retailers’ strategies for getting customers in the door.”

The Politics of Pretend Relief

Trump’s claim isn’t just misleading—it’s a deliberate distraction. At a time when real wages stagnate and working families juggle rent, childcare, and grocery bills, a fabricated 25% “savings” offers emotional comfort without material change.

This is what political theater looks like when policy fails: cherry-picked data, repackaged as hope.

This fact-based analysis was reported by Comrade KAS for The Comrade Courant on November 10, 2025. All views are the author’s own.

Image credit: “Walmart in Staunton, Virginia” by Ben Schumin (Montgomery Village, Maryland, USA) is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0. View original.